Friday

• US August inflation came in at 2.9% year-over-year, while jobless claims hit a four-year high. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis point Fed rate cut next week, with expectations of three total cuts in 2025.
• The Bank of Russia cut rates by 100bps to 17% as inflation pressures eased, while Turkey’s central bank reduced rates to 40.5%. The ECB maintained steady rates but lowered inflation forecasts at its latest meeting.

Thursday

• Global markets moved higher after US producer price data increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, with markets pricing in a 92% chance of a 25bps reduction. IT stocks showed strength with the sector index gaining over 2%, while oil & gas and PSU banks also advanced.
• Inflation inched up in August, according to government data released Thursday, as investors watched closely for indications of how President Trump’s tariffs are affecting consumer prices and what that could signal about the Federal Reserve’s approach to cutting interest rates.

Wednesday

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose about 0.5% after hitting record highs, while the Dow slipped 0.3%.
• Stocks gained Wednesday as Oracle’s strong revenue forecast boosted AI optimism. Oracle shares surged up to 39% after projecting cloud revenue could hit $144 billion by 2030.
• Wholesale inflation unexpectedly dropped last month, strengthening the case for a Fed rate cut next week.
• President Trump has urged the EU to impose 100% tariffs on India and China to pressure Russia. The US and India have also agreed to restart trade talks after disputes over India’s Russian oil purchases.

Tuesday

• Markets are pricing an 88% likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut next week, with a 12% chance of a 50-point cut. Global markets rallied Tuesday with the Sensex gaining 314 points to 81101 and Nifty rising 0.39% to 24868, driven by IT and pharma sectors.
• Gold reached new highs above $3,650 as the dollar hit seven-week lows, while France faced political turmoil after Prime Minister Bayrou’s confidence vote loss. Japan’s Nikkei achieved record levels before pulling back, with Hong Kong markets gaining on rate cut expectations.

Monday

• U.S. labor data showed only 22,000 jobs added in August versus 75,000 expected, pushing unemployment to 4.3%, its highest since late 2021. Markets responded with Treasury yields falling and the dollar weakening, while pricing in a 99% chance of a September Fed rate cut.
• Auto stocks gained on GST reform hopes, while tech stocks declined due to tariff worries. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, Nasdaq 0.6%, and Dow 0.3%, all reaching new highs.