Price Action
In the past 24 hours, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen modest upward movements, with prices slightly above their respective 30-day rolling VWAPs, indicating potential short-term undervaluation. However, both assets remain below their 200-day SMAs, signaling a bearish long-term outlook. Caution is warranted as prevailing bearish indicators and negative sentiment in accumulation/distribution metrics suggest continued downward pressure.
Friday
*Treasuries fell on Friday, pushing yields up by seven to 16 basis points across the curve, after US job growth exceeded all forecasts. As a result, traders reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year.
*US job growth saw its largest increase since March, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling, easing concerns about a significant weakening in the labor market.
*US stock futures rose, while bond traders had already started reducing bets on rate cuts before the data release. Market pricing now reflects a 30% chance of a half-point Fed cut next month, down from 60% a week ago.
*Meanwhile, Israel launched major airstrikes on Hezbollah targets near Beirut airport, alongside ground assaults in southern Lebanon, as Iran’s leader urged the Arab world to unite amid the escalating conflict.
*Oil is set for its strongest weekly gain in two years, driven by fears that Israel might target Iranian oil facilities in response to a missile attack on its territory.
Thursday
*US stocks fluctuated as concerns over escalating conflict in the Middle East dampened investor risk appetite, while crude oil continued to rise. International conflict has re-emerged as a key market driver, which had recently been influenced more by the US economic cycle.
*The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.5%, with US-listed Chinese stocks pulling back after strong gains earlier in the week. Levi Strauss shares fell sharply after the company lowered its full-year revenue growth outlook. Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s dollar index rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by higher Treasury yields.
*Global equities are headed for their first weekly decline in four weeks, as investors await Israel’s response to a missile strike by Iran. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut overnight following the deaths of eight of its soldiers in battles with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
*Amid the geopolitical tensions, investors are also looking for insights into the US economy, with the closely-watched monthly payrolls report set for release on Friday.
*US jobless claims remain low, aligning with minimal layoffs. Initial applications increased by 6,000 to 225,000 last week, while the four-week moving average fell to its lowest level since June.
Tuesday
*We’ve officially entered “Uptober,” a historically bullish month for Bitcoin. In 8 of the last 9 Octobers, BTC has seen an average gain of 22.9%. A similar rise this month could push the price above $78k, breaking its all-time highs.
*A global bond rally gained momentum amid fears of an escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas. Treasuries advanced following reports from the White House that Iran is preparing to attack Israel, with the 30-year yield dropping by over 7 basis points.
*The S&P 500 fell 0.7% after the index hit its 43rd closing record on Monday, marking a third-quarter rally and the longest winning streak since 2021. Tuesday ushers in a historically favorable, though often volatile, period for equities.
*BlackRock CEO Larry Fink cautioned that markets are factoring in too many Federal Reserve rate cuts, considering the ongoing growth of the US economy.
*The US has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel, according to a senior White House official.
*US job openings increased in August to a three-month high, contradicting other data that suggests a weakening demand for workers.
*In contrast, US manufacturing activity contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month, driven by weak orders and declining employment. The prices-paid index dropped by 5.7 points to 48.3, marking the first time this year it has signaled a decrease in overall costs.
Monday
*US stocks and bonds fluctuated on Monday as traders awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.
*The S&P 500 remained relatively flat, with declines in Amazon and Nvidia weighing on the index. Despite Monday’s sluggish performance, the equities gauge is still on track for its fourth consecutive quarterly gain, the longest winning streak since 2021.
*Investors are also focused on Powell’s upcoming speech at a National Association for Business Economics conference.
*Meanwhile, China’s largest stock market rally in over a decade is increasing pressure on the country’s quantitative hedge funds.
*Private credit firms have raised more investment-grade debt this year than ever before, as they compete with traditional banks despite holding record levels of cash.
*In the cryptocurrency market, over $735 million worth of tokens will be unlocked and released into circulation during the first week of October, part of a larger $3.46 billion expected to be released throughout the month. Most of these unlocks involve assets such as Celestia, Worldcoin, and Solana, according to Token Unlocks data.
