Price Action

*In the past hours BTC saw a modest 1% gain, rising from $74,289 to $75,020, with a 4% fluctuation between a low of $73,564 and a high of $76,498. Traders should watch for a breakout above resistance or brace for a potential pullback despite the strong uptrend.

*ETH surged 7% in the past 24 hours, climbing from $2,633 to $2,819 amid high volatility, ranging from $2,612 to $2,879. Short- to medium-term indicators show bullish momentum, but overbought conditions suggest caution for the longer term.

Friday

*U.S. equity futures fell as the market pared gains made after Donald Trump’s election triggered a risk-on surge. U.S. Treasuries rebounded, recovering most of their post-election losses.

*Bonds saw relief after the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut, signaling possible further easing next month. The S&P 500, after a 0.2% dip in futures, was set for its best week in a year, driven by hopes of tax cuts and deregulation under Trump.

*U.S. equity funds gained $20 billion on election day, the largest daily inflow in five months, with $32.8 billion added through Nov. 6, per Bank of America.

*In China, stocks and the yuan fell after a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) local government debt refinancing plan, indicating investors’ disappointment.

*Friday’s activity followed a Thursday rally spurred by Powell’s remarks highlighting U.S. economic strength and neutral policy stance ahead of December. He noted the election won’t impact near-term policy and stated he wouldn’t step down if asked by Trump.

*Traders now expect 82 basis points of Fed easing by September 2025 after the rate cut.

Thursday

*Markets are taking a breather Thursday after grappling with the effects of a Trump presidency. His win has forced investors to come to terms with economic policies that could lead to fewer Fed rate cuts, along with a possible Republican sweep of Congress that could help fuel fiscal expansion.

*US equity futures maintained their post-Election Day gains and the dollar eased as traders continued to map out Donald Trump’s return to the White House and what it holds for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

*S&P 500 contracts edged higher after the US benchmark surged in the previous session on bets that the newly elected President will boost corporates through pro-growth policies. An index of the dollar retreated 0.3% following its best day since 2022. Moves in US Treasury yields were muted after Wednesday’s seismic selloff.

*Later today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will face a tough test as a second Trump term sparks concerns over inflation. Officials are expected to lower rates by 25 basis points, a move that will come on the heels of the half-point cut in September. Traders are currently betting on about 100 basis points of Fed cuts by September 2025, compared to 110 basis points on Tuesday.

*Bitcoin, boosted by Trump’s embrace of digital assets during his campaign, slipped 1.5% early Thursday after rising to a record high the day before. Bitcoin crossed the $76000 mark for the first time as crypto rally liquidated nearly $400M shorts.

Wednesday

*Pro-crypto Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris to win a historic second term as president, securing 277 electoral votes.

*S&P 500 futures climbed 1.9%, the dollar had its biggest gain since 2020 and Bitcoin spiked to a record, surpassing $75,000 as investors prepare for a possibly more digital asset-friendly government, notably at the SEC. 

*Tesla Inc. surged 15% in premarket trading. US bonds tumbled on expectations of faster inflation, with 30-year yields jumping 20 basis points to 4.65%.

*Investors around the world grappled with the far-reaching effects of a Trump presidency, which is expected to bring steep tariffs on imported products, worsen trade tensions with China and increase pressure on Europe to ramp up defense spending. The Mexican peso fell the most in three months and the euro led losses among Group-of-10 currencies.

*Equities also reflected expectations that Trump would loosen financial regulation, embrace crypto and support fossil fuel producers.

Tuesday

*US equity futures rose Tuesday as voting began in a close US presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

*Following a turbulent campaign, traders are proceeding cautiously amid polls predicting a tight outcome and the potential for a prolonged vote count if the results are contested.

*Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%, while Palantir Technologies Inc. surged 13% in premarket trading, driven by record profits and strong demand for its AI software. The dollar held steady, and 10-year Treasury yields increased by two basis points to 4.30%.

*With the election expected to be close, investors are preparing for potential market volatility. Options data suggests a 1.8% movement in the S&P 500 in either direction on Wednesday with notable swings likely in specific stocks and sectors.

*On the crypto side of things, a UK pension fund has made its first direct investment in Bitcoin, allocating 3% of its assets to the cryptocurrency rather than using a proxy like a spot ETF.

*The State of Michigan Retirement System disclosed that it has acquired a stake in Grayscale’s spot ETH ETF, marking the first pension fund investment in this asset.

*Bullish, Robinhood, Kraken, Anchorage, and Paxos, along with other companies, have introduced a new stablecoin called Global Dollar.

Monday

*The dollar declined, and U.S. Treasuries gained as investors scaled back expectations of a Donald Trump election win following weekend polls showing Kamala Harris gaining momentum.

*The dollar index fell by its largest amount in over a month, while the Mexican peso — which plunged after Trump’s 2016 victory — led gains among 16 major currencies.

*Harris saw promising results from an ABC News and Ipsos poll, which gave her a 49%-46% national lead over Trump, while a New York Times/Siena poll indicated she was ahead in five of seven swing states. 

*The dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields had both hit highs not seen since July as investors bet on Trump’s re-election, anticipating his support for relaxed fiscal policy and high tariffs would widen the federal deficit and boost inflation, raising rates to the dollar’s benefit but weighing on Treasuries.

*Beyond the election, financial markets this week will also be influenced by central bank decisions in the U.S., UK, and Australia. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, after the latest jobs report indicated that U.S. hiring grew at its slowest pace since 2020, though unemployment remained low.

*On the crypto side of things, November’s largest token unlocks include: MEME, which will release 3.45 billion tokens worth around $37.8 million for its airdrop, Layer-1 blockchain APT, which will unlock 11.31 million tokens valued at $93 million, and ARB with 92.65 million tokens worth $45 million allocated to investors, the team, and advisors. AVAX is also set to release 1.67 million AVAX tokens worth $39 million for its foundation, while OP will unlock 31.4 million tokens worth $44 million for its investors and core contributors.