WEEKLY MARKET AND ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 1

Price Action: 

*BTC dropped about 2.7% over the past 24 hours, sliding from $72,083 to $70,152, with a high of $72,241 and a low of $68,798 in early November 1 trading. While the overall trend remains bullish, with prices above the 30-day VWAP and strong accumulation signals, caution is advised due to mixed short-term indicators and possible overbought conditions.

*ETH declined by 4.3% in the past day, from $2,633 to $2,519, with a high of $2,639 and a low of $2,471. A notable volume spike near $2,556 reflects heavy selling pressure, and bearish technical indicators suggest potential for further downside.

 

Friday

*Stocks rose ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report, following a turbulent week with mixed tech earnings. Oil prices also climbed amid Middle East tensions.

*S&P 500 futures inched up, though the index is set for its worst weekly performance in over a year, with concerns around AI and cloud computing after Microsoft and Meta reported results.

*Today’s payroll data may reveal slower job growth, adding uncertainty before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, as inflation recently hit its highest monthly increase since April. The swaps market now prices in 20 basis points of easing, down from 24 earlier in the week.

*Investors are also preparing for next week’s U.S. election, with the Cboe Volatility Index, or “Fear Gauge,” reaching highs last seen in August’s market turmoil.

*U.S. Treasuries held steady, despite October marking their worst month in two years after a significant sell-off on interest rate concerns. Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded-

*On the crypto side of things, the SEC issued a Wells Notice to crypto firm ImmutableX.

*Bitcoin fell nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, dropping from $72,500 to just above $69,000. The crypto market cap declined by 5.5%, with 90% of futures positions long, reflecting bullish sentiment before the sharp correction.

 

Thursday

*Stocks continued to decline on the busiest earnings day as investors absorbed mixed results from Microsoft and Meta, along with economic data that complicated the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

*Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 1% before recovering some losses, with Microsoft and Meta each down as much as 4% in pre-market trading, accounting for nearly half of Nasdaq’s losses, according to Bloomberg. Amazon and Apple are set to release their earnings today.

*The dollar softened but remains on track for its strongest month in over two years. One-week implied volatility on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index surged to its highest level since December 2022, signaling expected fluctuations in the dollar ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

*Data on prices, personal spending, and jobless claims offered little clarity on the Fed’s policy direction, following strong economic growth figures that led traders to reduce bets on rate cuts.

*MicroStrategy revealed plans to raise $42 billion over three years to buy more Bitcoin.

*The SEC has accepted Grayscale’s application to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into a multi-asset crypto ETF, with a decision anticipated in 45-90 days.

 

Wednesday

*US equity futures fluctuated as investors reviewed corporate earnings, with Microsoft and Meta expected to report later. Gold and Bitcoin traded near record highs.

*Alphabet Inc. surged over 5% in premarket trading after earnings beat estimates, while Advanced Micro Devices Inc. dropped 8% on weak revenue guidance.

*With the Fed’s decision about a week away, investors are focusing on three key US reports likely to indicate economic resilience, alongside a Nov. 5 presidential election that’s shaping up to be close.

*Bitcoin surged to $73,500 on Tuesday, just $300 shy of its all-time high, up nearly 75% this year and more than double from a year ago. Positive catalysts include the success of spot ETFs, new easing cycles globally, and rising chances for crypto-friendly candidate Donald Trump.

*ConsenSys is cutting 20% of its workforce due to economic and regulatory challenges but remains committed to its Web3 vision and support for Ethereum.

 

Tuesday

*Stocks dipped as traders anticipated new data on job openings and consumer spending, while also digesting a slew of corporate earnings.

*Equities trimmed their October gains, with attention on Alphabet Inc.’s earnings, expected to reflect steady growth trends. However, concerns over the uncertain costs tied to antitrust actions remain a drag on the stock. D.R. Horton Inc. dropped 14% due to weaker-than-expected home orders, while Pfizer Inc. saw gains following an optimistic outlook.

*The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 remained flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.4%.

*Bitcoin topped $72,000 just moments, rising 5% over 24 hours, triggering high trading volumes and the liquidation of over $143 million in short positions.

*The surge is also tied to the upcoming U.S. elections, with traders betting on positive market momentum regardless of the outcome.

 

Monday

 

*U.S. stock futures rose on Monday as concerns about Middle East tensions eased, setting the stage for a critical week featuring Big Tech earnings, an inflation report, and a key monthly jobs release.

*Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 0.7%, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures both rose 0.5%.

*The market reacted positively to news that Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran were limited to military targets, avoiding feared hits on oil or nuclear sites. This sent oil futures down over 6%, with Brent dropping to around $71 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $67.

*Tech stocks are in focus, with five of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps set to report earnings this week, following the Nasdaq Composite’s close near a record despite Friday’s losses.

*Investors are closely watching earnings from Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta to potentially lift the S&P 500 further. However, there are concerns about whether Big Tech’s AI investments are translating into profit, with some analysts expecting the slowest earnings growth in six quarters for these giants.

*Additionally, investors are preparing for key economic data releases that could challenge hopes for a “soft landing.” The spotlight is on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and the October jobs report, both pivotal to the central bank’s decision on a potential rate cut in November.