Price Update

• Bitcoin continued its strong upward momentum, rising from 99,400 to 103,000, backed by heightened bullish sentiment, elevated funding rates, and $2.7 million in liquidations. Technical indicators remain favorable, with upside targets at 104,000 and potentially the all-time high of 109,600, while 99,000 stands as key support.
• Ethereum surged from 1960 to 2340, driven by intense short liquidations averaging $23.2 million per hour, making up 84% of trading volume. The breakout above major moving averages, along with strong funding rates, points to sustained bullish momentum. The next key resistance lies at 2704, though holding above the 50-day moving average is essential for continued strength.
• Top movers today include SXT (+124.0%), PEPE (+34.9%), EIGEN (+31.6%), VIRTUAL (+25.3%), ENA (+21.1%) BERA (+20.5%), and ETH (+19.0%).

Friday

• U.S. stock futures pointed to a third consecutive day of gains, supported by strong corporate earnings and optimism surrounding upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX hit a record high, recovering all losses linked to earlier trade tensions.
• Markets briefly wavered after President Trump suggested an 80% tariff on China via social media but quickly rebounded. Brent crude climbed above $64 per barrel, the U.S. dollar weakened, and Treasuries stabilized.
• Coinbase is set to acquire crypto options exchange Deribit in a $2.9 billion deal.
• Investor sentiment remains focused on the potential for easing trade tensions with China, although Trump’s Friday remarks served as a reminder that negotiations may not yield quick results. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for the first public round of talks between the two countries.
• In Europe, Germany’s DAX Index rose as much as 0.8% to 23,528.88, surpassing its previous March peak. In Asia, MSCI’s regional index gained 0.7%, on track for a fourth straight week of gains. Meanwhile, Indian stocks and bonds extended losses amid escalating tensions with Pakistan.

Thursday 

• Markets showed cautious optimism, with stocks rising and bonds falling, as investors welcomed signs of progress in trade talks. Hopes that a U.S.-UK tariff agreement could reduce trade tensions and serve as a model for President Donald Trump’s negotiations with other nations lifted sentiment.
• This came a day after the Federal Reserve indicated it doesn’t see an immediate need for rate cuts, citing a stable U.S. economy. With Fed concerns easing, market focus returned to the outlook for trade policy. The S&P 500 posted a second consecutive gain, though it pulled back from its intraday highs. Meanwhile, demand for traditional safe havens like Treasuries, gold, and haven currencies declined.
• President Trump announced a “comprehensive” trade deal with the UK, with more details expected from the White House. However, despite the rhetoric, the agreement is expected to be modest in scope—not a full free trade deal, which typically takes years to finalize.
• Sources familiar with the arrangement said it preserves a 10% baseline tariff, which U.S. officials view as a necessary minimum to generate revenue and prevent trade abuses.

Wednesday

• U.S. stocks climbed as investors grew optimistic about a potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, even as expectations remained that the Federal Reserve would stick to its cautious, data-driven approach.
• Markets rebounded from a two-day decline as the U.S. and China prepared for their first confirmed trade negotiations since President Donald Trump launched broad tariff measures. Short-term Treasury yields rose, reflecting reduced expectations for interest rate cuts. Traders now anticipate about three quarter-point cuts in 2025, starting in July.
• The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% during Wednesday’s policy meeting, but attention will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for any hints about how the central bank views recent economic data and whether Trump’s trade agenda could influence future rate decisions.
• The Fed’s decision is due at 2 p.m. Washington time, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.
• Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will head to Switzerland later this week for trade discussions with China, as confirmed by both governments on Tuesday. 

Tuesday

• Markets pulled back as investors adopted a risk-averse stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Stocks declined amid underwhelming corporate earnings and growing concerns over the economic fallout from President Trump’s trade war.
• After a strong rebound that had lifted markets from near-bear territory, momentum stalled as traders awaited tangible progress in trade talks between the U.S. and its major partners. The S&P 500 dropped around 1%, with Ford withdrawing its earnings guidance due to the impact of auto tariffs, and Palantir tumbling after missing high investor expectations. Although outdated, data showing a record trade deficit in March further weighed on sentiment.
• Strategists at Goldman Sachs warned that high stock valuations leave limited room for further gains, especially after the S&P 500 ended its longest winning streak in two decades. Meanwhile, JPMorgan suggested U.S. assets may no longer be a safe haven.
• In bonds, short-term Treasuries outperformed ahead of the Fed’s announcement. Despite President Trump’s continued pressure for rate cuts, Fed officials remain cautious, preferring to assess the economic impact of recently enacted trade policies.
• Additionally, the administration’s tariff moves have raised concerns about waning foreign demand for U.S. assets, which could influence the outcome of a 10-year Treasury auction later in the day.
• The record March trade deficit was driven in part by a surge in imports—such as pharmaceuticals—as firms rushed to stock up before new tariffs took effect.

Monday

• A record-breaking rally in the stock market came to an end as President Donald Trump’s latest comments on tariffs failed to ease investor concerns about the economic and corporate fallout from his ongoing trade war.
• Even upbeat data on growth in the U.S. services sector couldn’t lift market sentiment, with the S&P 500 snapping its longest winning streak in nearly two decades. While Trump hinted that some trade deals might be finalized within the week, he offered no signs of progress with China. His decision to extend trade restrictions to the entertainment industry led to declines in shares of firms like Netflix and Disney.
• Although recent economic reports have calmed recession fears, many analysts believe the full effects of Trump’s tariffs are still to come. They warn the trade policies could disrupt supply chains, dent consumer confidence, and trigger a short-term spike in inflation.
• Investors are now turning their focus to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, as bond markets have scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts—expectations that had risen amid the market volatility caused by the trade war. The Fed is likely to stay on hold as long as employment remains strong, although new import duties could complicate its inflation outlook.
• Meanwhile, oil prices declined following a large OPEC+ production increase, and Taiwan’s currency posted its biggest gain since 1988 on speculation the government may allow it to strengthen to facilitate a trade deal with the U.S.