Price Action

Bitcoin dropped from 85,800 to 83,700, with key support at the 200-day MA (84,500). Trading activity remains moderate, with stable funding rates and minimal liquidations. Holding above 83,200 could spark an upward move, while a break below may accelerate selling toward 77,600.

Ethereum fell from 1,996 to 1,950, staying below all major MAs, with high funding rates indicating an excess of short positions. The 1,813 support level is crucial—holding it could trigger a short squeeze and recovery, while a breakdown may lead to further downside.

Top movers: ORCA (+145.5%), BERA (+7.5%), SUI (-8.3%), TAO (-7.1%), RAY (-7.0%).

Friday

• ⁠ A selloff in megacap stocks pushed the Nasdaq 100 toward its longest losing streak since May 2022, as disappointing earnings outlooks from major companies weighed on markets.
• ⁠ The tech-heavy index headed for its fifth straight weekly decline, while the S&P 500 dropped around 1%. Wall Street braced for heightened volatility with $4.5 trillion in options set to expire. Nvidia’s “death cross” pattern raised concerns of further losses, while weak forecasts from FedEx, Nike, Micron, and Lennar added pressure. Tesla, however, saw gains.
• ⁠ Despite market turmoil and recession fears, retail investors poured over $12 billion into U.S. equities in the past week, according to JPMorgan. Analysts note that individual traders often buy late in downturns, suggesting stocks may not have bottomed yet.
• ⁠ Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett highlighted that massive capital inflows into global equities indicate skepticism about a U.S. recession, despite concerns over a full-blown trade war. Strong rallies in Germany and China, key exporters to the U.S., further reinforce this view.
• ⁠ Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the inflationary impact of tariffs could be temporary if their scope remains limited.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, President Trump urged Congress to pass stablecoin legislation during his speech at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity to support crypto innovation.

Thursday

• ⁠ Stocks lost momentum ahead of a major options expiration, while Treasury yields fell as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve will stay on track for rate cuts.
• ⁠ Markets largely shrugged off jobless claims data, which signaled continued labor market resilience. Friday’s “triple witching” will see $4.5 trillion in stock, index, and ETF options expire, adding to market volatility.
• ⁠ The pound remained under pressure after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged amid global economic uncertainty.
• ⁠ After holding rates steady on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed growth concerns and suggested that inflationary effects from Trump’s trade tariffs would be temporary, reviving the term “transitory.”
• ⁠ Meanwhile, President Trump is set to speak at the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) in New York, marking the first time a sitting U.S. president will address a crypto conference. He is expected to announce key policy updates on digital assets.

Wednesday

• ⁠ Stocks rebounded, bonds declined, and the dollar strengthened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and economic outlook. Markets remain volatile after recent turmoil wiped trillions off U.S. equities amid economic uncertainty.
• ⁠ Megacap stocks like Tesla and Nvidia led the gains. Options traders are pricing in a 1.2% swing in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, above the 0.8% average for past Fed decision days, according to Citigroup. Short-term Treasury yields edged up, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged for at least the first half of 2025.
• ⁠ The Fed is expected to hold rates steady while assessing the economic impact of Trump’s policies. Powell is likely to reinforce the current stance, with projections still pointing to two rate cuts this year in the Fed’s “dot plot.”
• ⁠ The rate decision and updated economic forecasts will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. in Washington, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, Zelenskiy plans to speak with Trump on Wednesday, following Trump’s conversation with Putin, which failed to secure a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.

Tuesday

• ⁠ Wall Street looked set to extend its decline, while gold hit record highs as concerns over the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on sentiment.
• ⁠ S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5%. Tesla slid in premarket trading, extending its 41% year-to-date decline amid concerns that Elon Musk is alienating customers. Nvidia erased earlier gains as investors awaited CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at the GAI conference.
• ⁠ Market fears are growing over a weakening U.S. economy due to Trump’s trade and labor policies, with no signs of government intervention to stabilize markets. While housing starts exceeded expectations, other recent data suggest slowing growth.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, Israel broke a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas by launching airstrikes in Gaza, and Putin reportedly demanded a halt to all weapons shipments to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire proposal from Trump. Oil prices rose for a third day, gold surged past $3,000 an ounce, and gold ETFs recorded inflows for a fifth straight session.
• ⁠ In contrast, European markets saw a more optimistic tone, with the Stoxx 600 climbing 0.8%. Investors welcomed Germany’s plan for hundreds of billions in additional spending, expected to boost European growth. The euro hit a five-month high, further supported by positive German economic sentiment data.

Monday

• ⁠ Wall Street traders found some relief in mixed retail sales data, easing fears of a sharp pullback in consumer spending. Stocks edged higher while short-term bond yields climbed.
• ⁠ With the Federal Reserve decision approaching, investors remained cautious about market direction, especially amid tariff concerns. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% on Monday after its biggest rally since November, while two-year Treasury yields rose two basis points to 4.03%.
• ⁠ Retail sales rose 0.2% in February, though January’s figure was revised down to a 1.2% decline, the steepest since July 2021. However, control-group sales, which impact GDP calculations, rebounded 1%, reversing the prior month’s drop.
• ⁠ Fed officials are expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday, with market attention shifting to their updated economic projections and Powell’s remarks for insight into the policy outlook.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, Chinese economic data exceeded expectations, with strong consumption, investment, and industrial production, signaling resilience despite concerns over Trump’s tariffs.