Price Action

• Bitcoin plunged to $100,475 with $64.6M in liquidations before rebounding above the 30-day VWAP at $105,530, though derivatives show lingering bearish sentiment. It now trades between key support at the 50-day MA ($100,548) and resistance at the 20-day MA ($106,587).
  
• Ethereum fell from $2,590 to $2,399, triggering $42M in liquidations, but recovered to $2,517 while staying below major moving averages. A move above the 20-day MA at $2,556 could signal upside, while holding $2,395 is crucial for support.
  
• Notable movers today include SUI (+9.3%), DOGE (+6.8%), VIRTUAL (+6.6%), SOL (+4.9%), XRP (+4.0%), STX (-9.7%), ZEN (-7.5%), TRUMP (-6.8%), and GUN (-6.7%).

Friday 

• U.S. stocks surged to their highest levels since February, and bond yields climbed after job data helped ease fears of a near-term economic slowdown. The S&P 500 rose 1%, breaking above the 6,000 mark, with gains across all major sectors. Tesla jumped 4.5%, fueling a broader rally in large-cap tech stocks.
• Short-dated Treasury bonds faced the most pressure, pushing two-year yields to 4%. Investors also scaled back expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The dollar strengthened in response.
• Although job growth in May slowed and past months’ figures were revised down, the data slightly beat expectations, offering relief to markets that had been rattled earlier in the week. The report helped reassure investors about the labor market’s resilience.
• In response, President Trump called for the Fed to slash interest rates by a full percentage point, stepping up his criticism of Chair Jerome Powell.
• Separately, China issued temporary export licenses for rare-earth materials to suppliers of the three largest U.S. automakers, according to Reuters sources—signaling a slight easing of trade tensions.
• The jobs report suggests that U.S. employers remain cautious amid uncertainty around Trump-era economic policies.

Thursday

• Stocks paused their three-day rally, with the S&P 500 slipping below 6,000 despite earlier optimism sparked by news of a call between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, raising hopes for easing US-China tensions. Treasuries surged, but broader market moves were muted, and the dollar edged closer to its lowest point since July 2023.
• Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring from April’s strong pace, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%.
• Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to their highest level since October, signaling further signs of a softening labor market.
• The US trade deficit also narrowed sharply in April, marking a record drop due to the steepest-ever decline in imports — reflecting a sharp pullback in pre-tariff stockpiling by businesses.
• Following these developments, bond markets brought forward expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pricing in a potential earlier pivot as labor market data points to a cooling economy.

Wednesday

• U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall as soft economic data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year to ward off a potential recession.
• A slowdown in hiring and a contraction in the services sector pushed yields lower across the curve. Traders in the swaps market are now betting on two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first likely in September or October. The dollar weakened slightly, while the S&P 500 inched higher, led by defensive sectors like healthcare and communications. Major tech stocks saw little movement, with Meta rising and Tesla slipping.
• The ISM’s services index fell to 49.9 in May, dipping below the threshold that signals expansion. Meanwhile, ADP data showed private-sector jobs grew by just 37,000 in May — the slowest pace in two years.
• Markets are now looking to Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show a cooling in nonfarm payroll growth and a steady unemployment rate.
• Separately, President Donald Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin warned him of retaliation for a recent Ukrainian drone strike on Russian airfields, complicating U.S. efforts to mediate a ceasefire.
• Weaker-than-expected job and services data reinforced bets that the Fed could begin easing rates as early as September.

Tuesday

• U.S. stocks climbed as traders responded positively to labor market data showing resilience despite ongoing concerns over Trump’s tariff policies. Bonds declined and the dollar rebounded from its lowest level since 2023.
• The S&P 500 rose after an unexpected uptick in job openings, with tech stocks leading gains—Nvidia rose around 3%. Earlier losses had followed the OECD’s downgrade of global growth forecasts, citing the damaging effects of trade tensions on the global economy.
• The increase in job openings, alongside steady hiring and low unemployment, supports the Fed’s view of a healthy labor market. However, job seekers are taking longer to find employment, and economists warn of potential softening due to tariffs.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that China must decide whether it wants to be a reliable global partner and shift toward a consumption-driven economy.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled patience on interest rates, saying more progress on inflation is needed before considering cuts.

Monday

• Wall Street remained cautious as investors weighed fresh economic data, rising geopolitical tensions, and tariff uncertainty. Stocks fluctuated, bonds trimmed earlier losses, and the dollar neared its lowest level since 2023. Oil prices rose.
• After the S&P 500 posted its strongest May performance in 35 years, the index opened June relatively flat—typically a quiet month for gains. Energy and tech stocks helped pull the market off session lows following an early drop of nearly 1%. U.S. steel and aluminum shares rallied after Donald Trump vowed to double tariffs on those metals. Long-dated Treasuries lagged, with the 5s-30s yield curve reaching its steepest level since 2021.
• Trump’s shifting tariff policies reignited market concerns, especially amid renewed U.S.-China tensions, as both sides accused each other of violating trade agreements. The EU warned it could accelerate countermeasures if the U.S. proceeds with new tariffs. Meanwhile, U.S. factory activity shrank, and import levels fell to a 16-year low—signaling business caution.
• Russia and Ukraine concluded a second round of talks in Istanbul without major breakthroughs, though they agreed to organize another prisoner exchange.
• Investors now turn their attention to upcoming comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other officials, ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted there’s room for patience, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller maintained that rate cuts are still possible later this year.