Weekly Market and Economic Highlights – August 2

Today’s Price action:

*Over the past 24 hours, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant price fluctuations, with BTC seeing a modest increase and ETH a notable decline. Despite mixed technical indicators and recent volatility, both cryptocurrencies are showing potential for upward movement in the long term, though caution is advised due to short-term bearish signals and market volatility.

 

News

Friday

*The sharp shift away from Big Tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index into correction territory, erasing over $2 trillion in value in a little over three weeks, as traders reversed positions that had been profitable for more than a year.

*US hiring significantly slowed in July, and the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in nearly three years, increasing recession fears and setting the Federal Reserve on a clear path to cutting interest rates in September.

*Wall Street banks are increasing their forecasts for a vigorous Federal Reserve easing cycle, driven by recent signs of a cooling labor market.

*Coinbase reported a profit with revenue doubling, continuing the cryptocurrency recovery into the second quarter. The largest US crypto exchange saw its revenue rise to $1.45 billion, surpassing Bloomberg analysts’ forecasts. Net income reached $36 million, or 14 cents per share, after accounting for an impairment charge to write down the value of cryptocurrencies in its investment portfolio. This compares to a loss in the same period last year.

 

Thursday

*The Bank of England has reduced interest rates for the first time since the pandemic. Bailey emphasized a cautious strategy, noting the BOE’s vigilance against potential inflation spikes. Traders anticipate another rate cut in November. The pound remains down, and gilt yields have decreased.

*Stocks fell as bonds rallied due to weak economic data raising concerns that the Federal Reserve is delaying rate cuts. Treasury 10-year yields dropped below 4%, with swap traders now expecting three rate cuts this year. 

*Before the US jobs report, data revealed nearly a one-year high in unemployment claims and the largest drop in manufacturing activity in eight months. Although policy easing usually benefits Corporate America, economic worries drove equities down.

*Treasuries are gaining, with some maturities reaching their lowest yields in months as economic data strengthens the argument for three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. On Thursday, the 10-year note’s yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February, following manufacturing and jobless claims data that suggested a cooling US labor market.

*Analysts are increasingly focusing on the core enterprise software business of Bitcoin-proxy MicroStrategy Inc. Initially, co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor turned to Bitcoin four years ago to effectively invest the company’s cash flow. Since then, the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm has pursued a dual strategy of investing in BTC instead of traditional assets like short-term Treasuries, while also expanding its software operations.

 

Wednesday

*Federal Reserve officials are expected to signal a potential rate cut in September, moving closer to lowering interest rates from their highest point in two decades, although they may not offer specific details.

*According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, the US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee is likely to maintain its benchmark rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a level reached a year ago, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

*Stocks bounced back as chipmakers rallied, with fresh economic data strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will hint at a rate cut in September. Equities posted significant gains, driven by Nvidia’s 10% surge after Morgan Stanley analysts named it the top US chip stock pick. Advanced Micro Devices also jumped on a positive outlook.

*Donald Trump’s recent promise to establish a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile” may not be as significant as the hype suggests. “Trump’s proposal is extremely modest,” stated George Selgin, director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute, a Washington-based public policy group. “It doesn’t have much of an economic implication.”

 

Tuesday

*A selloff among the world’s largest companies dragged stocks down as traders braced for earnings reports from tech giants and key central bank decisions. Despite over 300 shares in the S&P 500 rising, renewed tech sector weakness, particularly a 5% drop in Nvidia, weighed on the index.

*Two lesser-known ETFs that focus on made-in-America investment themes are quietly accumulating assets. This trend reflects investor confidence that domestic manufacturing will prosper under the next presidential administration.

*Bitcoin fell below $67,000 as traders reacted to indications that the US government might sell parts of its substantial cryptocurrency holdings.

*Russia is working to regulate cryptocurrency usage as businesses face growing challenges with foreign payments due to the threat of US sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.

 

Monday

*21Shares US LLC, associated with 21Shares AG and a key player in crypto exchange-traded products, has announced a partnership with Chainlink. The collaboration will integrate Chainlink’s Proof of Reserve (PoR) to improve the transparency of the ETH reserves supporting the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF (CETH), as announced on Monday.

*Stocks fluctuated as investors awaited major central bank decisions, key economic data, and earnings reports from four megacap companies worth nearly $10 trillion.

*After a significant rotation that nearly pushed the Nasdaq 100 into correction territory, big tech stocks rose on Monday. The upcoming results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are expected to be crucial following a disappointing start to the megacap earnings season.

*Investors started the week eager for clarity on the near-term trajectory of global monetary policy after mixed signals from key economies unsettled markets. Major central banks are scheduled to meet in Tokyo and Washington on Wednesday and in London on Thursday, leaving traders uncertain about whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and when and by how much the Federal Reserve and Bank of England will cut them.

 

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