Price Action

* Bitcoin showed strength with a rebound from $78,500 to $82,700, supported by solid buying during the Asian session. Derivatives markets reflected stability with moderate liquidation levels and slightly positive funding rates. However, BTC continues to trade below major moving averages, with key resistance at $87,200 and important support at $78,500.

* Ethereum moved within a wide range between $1,476 and $1,582, ending around $1,565. Significant liquidations and negative funding rates point to continued bearish pressure. ETH remains below critical technical levels, with $1,417 as a key support and $1,768 as resistance for a potential recovery.

Top performers today include ORCA (+50.9%), VIRTUAL (+27.7%), ONDO (+23.9%), CRV (+16.4%), and ZEC (+14.5%).

Friday

• Treasuries and the dollar fell sharply Friday, capping a turbulent week as the escalating US-China trade conflict raised fears of economic and financial instability. Stocks swung wildly, while concerns mounted that international investors are pulling out of US assets.
• Markets showed continued volatility with no clear signs of calming, as President Donald Trump’s rapidly shifting trade stance rattled businesses and consumers. Inflation expectations surged to multi-decade highs, and the dollar hit a six-month low. Yields on 30-year US bonds edged closer to 5%.
• In response to recent US actions, China announced it would raise tariffs on all American imports from 84% to 125% and vowed to “counterattack to the end” if the US persists. China’s Ministry of Finance dismissed US moves as a “joke,” saying they were no longer worth reciprocating.
• JPMorgan Chase reported record equity trading revenue but warned of a worsening economic outlook, while Morgan Stanley also saw a surge in trading gains amid the market turmoil.
• Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett noted that rising bond yields, falling stocks, and a weakening dollar are triggering global asset sell-offs and may prompt central banks to intervene — though he advised selling into market rallies. Meanwhile, gold hit a new all-time high above $3,200, Bitcoin gained 2.8%, and the euro jumped 1.4% to around $1.13.

Thursday

• Risk appetite faded sharply on Wall Street following one of the strongest buying sprees in years, as stocks retreated despite softer inflation data and a rebound in Treasuries. The S&P 500 gave up about a quarter of Wednesday’s rally as investors grew cautious over a prolonged period of trade tensions.
• Market optimism quickly turned to concern that tariffs may inflict lasting harm on the economy, despite President Donald Trump’s unexpected tariff delay. Although March’s consumer price index showed signs of cooling, it was released before the new wave of tariffs, which could drive inflation higher. The S&P 500 dropped over 2%, while Treasuries halted their recent selloff that had raised alarms over financial stability.
• Despite Trump’s decision to postpone some tariff hikes, early signs of a global trade slowdown are already surfacing as companies begin cutting back on orders. Trump’s continued pressure on China has intensified trade tensions, leaving little room for a swift resolution.
• Federal Reserve officials have indicated they’re likely to hold rates steady, aiming to prevent Trump’s tariffs from fueling sustained inflation—even if labor market conditions weaken further.
• Meanwhile, China responded firmly after Trump’s shift in tariff strategy further singled out Beijing, reducing the likelihood of an immediate de-escalation in the ongoing trade conflict.

Wednesday

• ⁠Wall Street kicked off another volatile session as stocks rebounded from steep early losses, while bond markets faced heavy selling amid escalating trade tensions after China responded to U.S. tariffs.
• ⁠The S&P 500 recovered to trade flat after earlier declines, narrowly avoiding bear market territory. Long-term Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year rate briefly rising above 5%, and credit risk indicators hit their highest level since May 2023. Safe-haven assets like gold, the yen, and the Swiss franc climbed.
• ⁠Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the bond selloff, calling it “uncomfortable but normal deleveraging.” Still, the pressure spread globally — UK bond yields hit a 25-year high and Japan’s 40-year bond yields reached a record.
• ⁠Pharmaceutical stocks dropped after President Trump announced plans for major tariffs on drugs, with Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Merck all falling over 3% premarket. Delta Air Lines also withdrew its financial outlook, signaling broader corporate unease.
• ⁠Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 104% has pushed JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to raise recession risks for the U.S., further complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path amid rising inflation threats.

Tuesday

• ⁠U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday following the steepest three-day selloff in five years, driven by deeply oversold conditions and hopes that the Trump administration might ease its aggressive tariff plans.
• The S&P 500 climbed 3.34% at the opening bell in New York, on track for its strongest session since November 2022. After losing over $5 trillion in value during the previous three sessions, the index found support at the 5,000 level amid speculation of a potential delay in tariff implementation. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield reversed earlier gains, rising back above 4%.
• Volatility remained high, with the Cboe Volatility Index spiking above 50 on Monday and holding near 40 on Tuesday — well above its historical average. Monday also saw over 29 billion shares traded during the chaotic market action.
• Despite Tuesday’s rebound, the S&P 500 remains 15% below its February 19 peak. On Monday, the 14-day relative strength index dropped to 23, a level not seen since 2020, suggesting extreme oversold conditions and setting the stage for a technical bounce.
• The rally forced institutional investors to rapidly cover short positions as oversold equities rebounded sharply. Contributing to the upbeat mood were remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who hinted at the potential for favorable trade agreements with key U.S. partners.
• China, however, appeared ready to escalate the trade conflict, declaring late Monday its readiness to “fight to the end.” In contrast, Japan may be prioritized in negotiations aimed at rolling back Trump’s tariffs, which are set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday.

Monday

• ⁠ A sharp stock selloff began to ease as traders ramped up bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in response to mounting economic concerns, just days before President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in.
• ⁠ S&P 500 futures dropped around 2.5% on Monday, recovering from an earlier plunge of 5.5%. A massive $9.5 trillion in global market value was wiped out, putting the index close to bear market territory. Investors fled riskier assets, pouring into bonds, with two-year Treasury yields briefly dropping by 22 basis points. Markets are now pricing in 125 basis points in rate cuts by year-end — the equivalent of five quarter-point reductions.
• ⁠ This shift reflects growing market anxiety, as Trump shows no signs of softening his aggressive trade stance. Billionaires Bill Ackman and Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the sweeping tariffs, while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called for swift resolution to avoid further economic fallout.
• ⁠ The extreme volatility across equities, bonds, and commodities has triggered some of the largest margin calls for hedge funds since the pandemic. The upside? This wave of forced selling may be nearing its end, potentially setting the stage for a rebound once regular U.S. trading resumes.
• ⁠ With fears of a global recession escalating, traders are increasingly expecting the Fed to cut rates — possibly even before its next scheduled meeting.