Price Action

Bitcoin dropped from 82,900 to 80,700, showing strong bearish momentum while trading below all major moving averages. Short liquidations totaled $2.27M, with 80,000 serving as a key support level. A break below could push prices to 77,600, while holding the 200-day MA could spark a recovery toward 87,000-88,600.

Ethereum remains in a consolidation phase between 1,820 and 1,925, trading below key technical levels but maintaining positive funding rates at 0.51 bps. Resistance at 1,957 could trigger a rally to 2,380 if breached, while a drop below 1,813 may lead to 1,700.

Top movers: RARE (+43.5%), TRUMP (+9.0%), LINK (+8.2%), XRP (+2.8%), PEPE (+4.7%), RED (-9.9%), RAY (-6.1%).

Friday

• ⁠  Global stocks climbed as fears of a U.S. government shutdown eased, boosting investor confidence. Gold surged past $3,000 an ounce, driven by strong haven demand.
• ⁠  S&P 500 futures gained 0.9% after Congress appeared ready to pass a stopgap funding bill, easing uncertainty. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, with Nvidia leading premarket gains among major tech stocks. The S&P 500 had recently entered correction territory, falling over 10% in a three-week rout.
• ⁠  Since Trump took office, $5 trillion has been wiped from U.S. stocks, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. A Bloomberg survey shows bullish sentiment on Treasuries is at a three-year high, while gold has gained over 14% year-to-date.
• ⁠  In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% after Germany’s incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly struck a spending deal with the Greens for infrastructure and defense.
• ⁠  Economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady through mid-year before cutting twice starting in September, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Thursday

• ⁠  US stock futures trimmed losses after February wholesale inflation came in flat, signaling easing price pressures. Producer prices remained unchanged versus expectations of a 0.3% rise, aided by lower service costs, following Wednesday’s softer consumer inflation data. Jobless claims fell to 220,000, slightly below forecasts.
• ⁠  Despite the data, market concerns persist as it doesn’t factor in trade tariffs, which raise fears of an economic slowdown. Trump escalated tensions by threatening a 200% tariff on EU wine if the bloc doesn’t remove levies on US goods.
• ⁠  Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick praised the UK and Mexico for avoiding retaliatory tariff hikes, warning that nations opposing Trump’s protectionist measures risk severe consequences.
• ⁠ Sources say representatives of President Trump’s family have discussed acquiring a financial stake in Binance’s U.S. division, potentially linking Trump to a firm that admitted to violating anti-money-laundering laws in 2023.

Wednesday

• ⁠  Stocks signaled a rebound after a rough losing streak, as slower-than-expected inflation data eased investor concerns over the economic impact of a trade war.
• ⁠  Equities rose in early trading after a selloff pushed the S&P 500 near a technical correction. A tech megacap rally fueled gains in futures, while bonds remained steady as traders continued pricing in nearly three Fed rate cuts for 2025.
• ⁠  Inflation grew at its slowest pace in four months, with the consumer price index rising 0.2% in February after a sharp 0.5% increase in January. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.2%.
• ⁠  Meanwhile, Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect Wednesday, sparking concerns across export-heavy Asian markets and prompting immediate retaliation from the EU, escalating global trade tensions.

Tuesday

• ⁠  US stocks are poised for a rebound after Monday’s losses, with investors focusing on President Trump’s upcoming meeting with business leaders for market direction.
• ⁠ Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5% after yesterday’s nearly 4% drop, the steepest since 2022, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Tech stocks saw modest gains, with Tesla up 2.4% in premarket trading. Bitcoin also recovered after a five-day losing streak.
• ⁠ Trump’s meeting with the Business Roundtable, which includes top Wall Street executives, is closely watched for signals on potential tariff policy shifts or market support amid economic uncertainty and trade war concerns.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, investor sentiment has shifted toward Europe and China, particularly after Germany’s commitment to large-scale defense spending. While Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% on Tuesday, it has still outperformed Wall Street year-to-date.
• ⁠ Treasuries held steady, with 10-year yields near yearly lows, as traders awaited new US labor market data. The January job openings and labor turnover report is expected to indicate signs of cooling, though overall job numbers are expected to remain stable.

Monday

• ⁠  Concerns over tariffs and government job cuts threatening U.S. economic growth fueled a three-week stretch of market volatility on Monday. Wall Street stocks fell as analysts turned cautious, while demand for recession hedges drove gains in U.S. and European sovereign bonds.
• ⁠  Benchmark Treasury yields have dropped nearly 30 basis points in a month on expectations that an economic slowdown could push the Fed to cut rates. U.S. credit risk hit its highest level in 2025, with over 10 major companies delaying bond sales.
• ⁠  Trump downplayed recession fears, calling the current economic situation a “period of transition” but acknowledging the impact of tariffs and job cuts. When asked if a recession is expected, he avoided a direct answer, saying, “What we’re doing is very big.”
• ⁠  In Germany, the Green Party rejected a debt-funded plan for large-scale defense and infrastructure spending, casting doubt on the economic agenda of incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
• ⁠  Cryptos continued their decline as trade war tensions and fading hopes for more Fed rate cuts outweighed Trump’s recent pro-crypto announcements. Risk assets have struggled since the Fed signaled a pause in rate cuts in December, with added uncertainty from Friday’s labor data showing U.S. unemployment rising to 4.1% from 4%.