Price Action:

• Bitcoin saw a slight uptick from $81,900 to $83,000, though high funding rates and $7.7 million in long liquidations signaled persistent market pressure. The price remains constrained between the 50-day MA resistance at $87,400 and 20-day MA support at $84,300. A breakout above the 50-day MA could push BTC toward $89,100, while losing support may lead to a retest of $78,500.
• Ethereum edged up from $1,775 to $1,798 but faced resistance at the 20-day MA of $1,925. Elevated funding rates and $2 million in long liquidations highlight ongoing volatility. The asset remains bearish below key moving averages, with potential upside toward $2,178 if $1,925 is cleared, while failure to hold support could see a drop toward $1,758.

Notable movers today include LTO(+25.8%), ZRO(+21.1%), ATOM(+16.2%), S(+9.0%), AIXBT(+7.9%), JUP(+7.1), GUN(-7.7%), BERA(-5.2%).

Friday

• ⁠ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the economic impact of new tariffs could be more severe than anticipated, emphasizing the need to prevent inflation from escalating.
• ⁠ President Donald Trump renewed his call for the Fed to cut interest rates, urging Powell to keep borrowing costs low to boost consumer demand.
• ⁠ US stocks plunged on Friday, with the Nasdaq 100 slipping into a recession and the S&P 500 heading for its worst week since March 2020, as concerns over the trade war’s impact on the economy deepened.
• ⁠ The market selloff intensified after China announced a 34% tariff on all US imports starting April 10, along with targeted measures against poultry producers and weapons manufacturers, according to Xinhua News Agency. The latest escalation in Trump’s trade war fueled further market volatility, yet Trump remained firm, stating his economic policies “will never change.”
• ⁠ The Cboe Volatility Index surged toward 40, signaling extreme market turbulence. Investors flocked to Treasuries for safety, while credit risk spiked to its highest level since the March 2023 regional banking crisis.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, US job growth exceeded expectations in March, with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, indicating a strong labor market ahead of the tariff fallout. This data release could significantly influence bond, stock, and currency markets, as well as the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.

Thursday

• ⁠ Donald Trump’s tariff war sent shockwaves through global markets Thursday, dragging stocks lower and driving investors toward safe-haven assets. US equities and the dollar suffered heavy losses as concerns grew that the trade dispute would slow economic growth.
• ⁠ The S&P 500 erased around $2 trillion in value, sliding 3.5%, with companies heavily reliant on global supply chains—like Apple, Nike, and Walmart—taking the hardest hit. While global stocks also declined, US markets faced the steepest selloff. The dollar posted its biggest drop in two and a half years, while crypto and commodities, including oil and metals, also tumbled.
• ⁠ Fears that the largest US tariff hike in a century will dampen economic growth fueled a bond rally, pushing Treasury yields closer to the key 4% level. Investors increased bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England, while safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc surged.
• ⁠ Trump’s tariff strategy aims to boost domestic manufacturing and strengthen US influence but challenges the long-held belief that free trade fosters economic stability. Economists warn that his policies could lead to rising prices, slower growth, or even a recession.
• ⁠ “This was the worst-case tariff scenario, and markets weren’t prepared for it,” said Mary Ann Bartels of Sanctuary Wealth. “If these tariffs remain, the economy is going to slow—whether it leads to a recession or not, a slowdown is inevitable.”
• ⁠ Growing recession fears are evident across asset classes. Stocks and bond yields, which previously moved together in 2023, are now falling simultaneously—often a signal that economic expectations are deteriorating.

Wednesday

• ⁠ Global stocks declined, bonds gained, and gold reached a new high as markets braced for President Trump’s impending tariff announcement, expected to reshape global trade.
• ⁠ The S&P 500 opened lower despite strong jobs data, as concerns over tariffs’ economic impact and potential Fed rate cuts weighed on sentiment. Treasury yields continued to fall amid trade war fears.
• ⁠ Trump’s team is finalizing the details of the new import tariffs, set to be revealed at 4 p.m. in Washington. Proposals under consideration include a tiered tariff system with flat rates or a customized reciprocal approach.
• ⁠ Tesla reported a 13% drop in vehicle sales last quarter, marking its lowest level in nearly three years, as it revamped a key model and faced global backlash against Elon Musk.
• ⁠ Meanwhile, China has reportedly moved to limit domestic firms’ US investments, a step that could strengthen its position in upcoming trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Tuesday

• ⁠ US stock futures declined, signaling another turbulent session as markets braced for impending tariffs. Gold continued its upward streak, reaching a record high.
• ⁠ S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, reversing earlier gains. Johnson & Johnson fell 3.5% in premarket trading after a judge blocked its latest bankruptcy strategy to settle baby powder cancer lawsuits. Delta and Southwest Airlines declined following Jefferies’ downgrade over consumer spending concerns.
• ⁠ Europe’s Stoxx 600 climbed 0.9% after four consecutive losses. The dollar held steady, while 10-year Treasury yields fell four basis points. Gold surged to nearly $3,150 an ounce.
• ⁠ President Trump is set to unveil his reciprocal tariff plan at 3 p.m. Wednesday in the White House Rose Garden, but uncertainty remains over the scope of the levies. Markets are on edge, unsure if Trump will take a hardline or moderate stance.
• ⁠ Concerns are mounting that his announcement could spark prolonged trade disputes, pressuring the economy and fueling market volatility. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU is ready to retaliate if tariffs are imposed.
• ⁠ Investors worry that ongoing global credit market gains mask the risk of US policy uncertainty triggering a recession. Some analysts are warning this could become a “gray swan” event.

Monday

• ⁠ U.S. stocks extended losses on Monday as fears over President Trump’s upcoming tariffs rattled markets, putting the S&P 500 on track for its worst quarter relative to global peers since the 1980s.
• ⁠ The S&P 500 fell over 1% at the open, nearing correction territory, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.6%. The “Magnificent Seven” megacaps slid nearly 3%, with Nvidia and Tesla leading declines. Auto stocks, including Ford, GM, and Stellantis, continued to drop amid trade war concerns and profit risks.
• ⁠ The Cboe Volatility Index surged past 24, signaling heightened market anxiety, as investors sought safety in U.S. bonds and gold, which hit a record above $3,100 an ounce.
• ⁠ Traders remain cautious ahead of Trump’s announcement of broad tariffs on Wednesday. The S&P and Nasdaq 100 are on pace for their worst quarters since 2022, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, echoing warnings from JPMorgan and Moody’s.